Anticipating regret in Ukraine
My thoughts on the psychology of deterrence
New from me: some thoughts on the essential strategic skill of knowing what you want, and the related skill of remembering accurately what you did want. Failure to do either of these things well enough is in large part why we are in such a pickle over Ukraine.
The psychology and neuroscience of memory and regret is fascinating. Strategists spend an awful lot of time gauging other minds (what will Putin make of this?), and not nearly enough time reflecting on their own minds.
Carl v C thought about this (ofc he did) with his famous line that statesmen should know what they’re getting into before they get into it. This line always infuriated me: if it were that simple, Carl, our worries would be over.
Anyway - something to chew on as we head into even more dangerous times. What do we want?
Here it is: click the picture of Carl to get to the paper….
My thanks to The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies for publishing me.
PS - in case you’re wondering why I’ve been so quiet - I’ve been busy modelling strategic dynamics with AIs. More on that soon.